Presque Isle, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

895
FXUS61 KCAR 242350
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
750 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 740 PM Update: Delayed patchy fog development and start to
  rain based on current relative humidity observations and
  amount of dry air to be saturated. Updates to aviation section
  below with the 00z TAFs.

- Lowered dew points for this afternoon.

- Slowed the onset of POPs this evening due to significant dew
  point depressions.

- Increased QPF for Downeast locations.

- Added isolated embedded thunderstorms along the Downeast
  coast for Monday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread soaking rain from tonight into Memorial Day. This
will aid in mitigating ongoing drought conditions across
portions of the region.

2) Showers likely with possible thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday evening over Northern Maine.

3) Cooler temperatures expected later in the workweek, with
unsettled weather likely continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain from tonight into
Memorial Day. This will aid in mitigating ongoing drought
conditions across portions of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Ridge axis and dry air and 30-40 degree dew point depressions
will be exiting to the east on this evening. As the airmass
moistens, rain is expected to begin late this evening to early
tonight. This is a significantly dry airmass its running into so
have once again slowed POPs timing. The rain will then spread
from W to E through the night and into Memorial Day. Cold air
damming overnight will essentially split the rain between south
and north early in the overnight hours before moisture converges
over the CWA.

A cold front will cross the area during the day on Memorial
Day, bringing a wetting rain across the region. Total rainfall
amounts will be highest along the coast as a coastal low
develops along the surface trough, enhancing forcing along the
coast. Even still, total rainfall will likely remain below an
inch through the area, though overcast skies and increased
moisture will limit evaporation and add to the surface moisture
likely improving ongoing drought conditions. Have opted to add
embedded thunderstorms along the Downeast coast with some
elevated instability that works into that region associated
with developing surface cyclogenesis. Rain will end W to E as a
few showers. Given the rainfall and with diminishing winds
tomorrow night, patchy valley fog is possible Monday night
mainly in valley locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers likely with possible thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening over Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Confidence is fairly high in a quick hitting system impacting
mainly northern portions of the area Tuesday afternoon into the
evening. The timing of the shortwave trough approaching from
the northwest looks to favor most of the activity being after
6PM, with shower chances peaking in the evening. Thunderstorms
are also possible, but confidence is low to moderate on this due
to the timing before sunset. Much of the instability that does
develop will quickly dwindle as the sun sets around 815PM. Rain
totals don`t look overly impressive, with generally a tenth to
a quarter of an inch of rain north of Baxter SP/Moosehead
Regions, none for Bangor to the coast. Locally higher amounts
are possible in any thunderstorms over the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler temperatures expected later in the
workweek, with unsettled weather likely continuing.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
From Wednesday onward, forecast confidence decreases,
specifically in timing individual systems. That said, we do have
fairly high confidence in below normal temperatures from
Thursday to Saturday, and confidence in a pattern which features
unstable north/northwest flow with periodic shower chances. If
we can get a clear night, we can`t rule out patchy frost mainly
in Northern Maine on any of the nights Thursday night to
Saturday night. There`s about a 20-30 percent chance that one
of the nights in this timerange would have patchy frost.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00z TAF UPDATE...

KBGR and KBHB/coastal terminals: VFR conditions will persist
through the evening, with mid-level clouds thickening and
lowering. Will drop to MVFR around midnight with VCSH.
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate to IFR, and eventually LIFR
over the next few hours with the onset of light RA. A prominent
hazard overnight will be around 40 kts of SE LLWS.
Additionally, slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday
afternoon at coastal terminals.

KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, KFVE/northern terminals: VFR into this evening,
generally lowering to MVFR shortly after midnight, quickly
followed by IFR as the precip shield moves north. Widespread
LIFR conditions are expected by Monday morning with light rain
lowering cigs. LLWS through the morning is possible, though not
as strong as near the coast.

All Terms Winds: S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt through
this evening. Winds will generally remain from the S-SE at 5-10
kt into overnight, with some localized gusts to 20kt returning
tomorrow morning.

Monday Night...Generally VFR, but with patchy valley fog which
could produce local IFR/LIFR. Confidence is low. Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday...W/SW wind 10 kts gusting 20 kts. VFR, except possible
MVFR late afternoon in the far north with potential for thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...MVFR possible from HUL north in showers and
possible storms. Likely VFR BGR/BHB. S wind 5 kts.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR BGR/BHB and MVFR or VFR
HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE. Showers possible. NW wind 5-15 kts with higher
gusts during the day.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. N winds 5-15kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below SCA conditions into this evening. SE winds will
ramp up tonight gusting >25kt by midnight across the outer
waters 25-60nm then gusting over 25kt on the coastal waters on
Monday. Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Coastal Waters
out 25nm from 5AM Monday till 8AM Tuesday. SE winds 10-20kt with
gusts up to 30kt and seas building to 5-8ft. On the intra-
coastal waters the Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 11AM
Monday till 2AM Tuesday. Southeast winds 10-20kt with gusts up
to 25kt and season 3-6ft. Rain and fog develops across the
waters tonight and last into Monday evening. Thunderstorms are
possible on Monday afternoon embedded within the rain. Fog
remains possible Monday night into Tuesday.

Winds relax to generally less than 25kt across the waters
Tuesday AM through late week. Seas 3-5ft Monday night into
Tuesday evening then subside towards 1-3ft by mid to late week.
Chance of showers returns late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/JS
AVIATION...AES/JS